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Emerging Nations May Lead Global Economy out of Recession

The credit crisis and global recession may have started in the United States but it will be the combined efforts of China and other emerging world economies like India and Brazil that could lead the way out. The demand for goods from the growing middle class in these countries has started a flame that, with nurturing, could grow into an economic furnace.

China accounts for around 6 percent of the world economy, but when you factor in Brazil, India and other large emerging nations, they represent around 1/3 of global GDP.

The financial crisis and global recession has created an opportunity for these countries to look inward to a growing domestic market instead of having a myopic focus on exports. There is real demand within their own borders and finding new and innovative ways to foster and meet that demand is critical.

If these emerging economies can fan the flames of their own domestic markets they can not only weather the current economic storm, but perhaps emerge as leaders in the next iteration of the global economy.

China Stimulates Growth

News of China's multibillion dollar stimulus package was welcomed globally as Beijing took decisive action to attempt to improve the domestic economy. Asian stock markets soared following the announcement of a 4 trillion yuan, or $586 billion USD, package but US markets were little impacted. China now joins moves by governments around the world to attempt to soften the blow of the global slowdown.

The stimulus package calls for higher government spending on infrastructure and bigger subsidies to the poor and farmers. It promises more lending for rural projects, smaller companies and consumers but provides no details.

Clearly concerned by falling growth, the government switched its official goal earlier this year from a single focus on fighting inflation to a dual approach of ensuring fast economic growth while also containing price increases. It has cut interest rates three times in recent weeks and lifted limits on how much Chinese banks can lend.

Many analysts feel that China along with other Asian economies will lead the way out of the economic slowdown. There is a strong likelihood that China's economy will turn the corner first followed by India and other eastern economies with the US and Europe lagging a few quarters behind.

The Obama Effect: A Positive For Global Trade

The last eight years has seen the worldwide reputation of the United States diminish as President Bush became recognized as a leader who would often take unilateral action rather than work together with leaders of other countries. He defined his presidency as one where he was "the decider" and many questioned whether he did enough to seek effective council and reach out to the international community for cooperation and collaboration on complex areas like global trade.

Enter Barack Obama. If the reaction in the international community to the announcement of his historical election win is any indication, he will be flooded with offers of cooperation from the leaders of other countries. Many foreign governments found it almost impossible to do business with the Bush administration due to the negative impact that perception would have for them in their own countries. With Obama, the way is clear for them to start fresh and rebuild alliances with the US.

For Obama to address the US economic woes he will need the support of the international community. If the global credit crisis has proved anything, it is that the world economies are inextricably linked and by working only within the borders of the US, he will make little headway in improving the state of the economy.

The good news is that Obama has shown that he is willing to reach out and has spoken numerous times about working together with the leaders of other countries. He has made some statements that could be viewed as protectionist, but many argue that he will not take a protectionist agenda, realizing that isolating the US and putting up trade barriers will only exacerbate the problem.

The next four years will be very interesting as Obama tackles major issues both within and outside the borders of the US. We expect to see an "Obama Effect" very early into his presidency and will be on the lookout for it.

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